Wednesday, February 6, 2013

January Summary

January Results


The S&P 500 was up 5.0% in January and the Undervalued list (12/31) was even with the market but the Overvalued list outperformed the S&P by 3.9%.

That prompted a closer look at the performance of the screens in up vs down markets.

In the 99 months of results to the end of 2012, 60 months the S&P 500 was up and 39 it was down.

Of the the 60 positive months, the Overvalued outperformed by 28 times (47%) while in the 39 down months, the Overvalued only outperformed 11 times or 28%.  The cost of investing in value, as we calculate it, is more underperformance in up markets than in down markets which is the lesser of two evils.

Overall, the ratio is 61% in favor of the undervalued.

the worksheet with the data can be opened here

January 31st Undervalued list


INGR, PBCT & HRS are new this month, replacing TUP (+13% rel), PBY(+8), JBHT (+7) and DD (0)


January 31st Overvalued List


VLO and CINF are new this month replacing EIX (+2% relative), ANF (-1) AND TLAB(-5)